conditional probability
Noun
Meaning
the probability that an event will occur given that one or more other events have occurred
Source: WordNetSynonyms
Hypernyms
Examples
The notion of conditional probability is a basic tool of probability theory, and it is unfortunate that its great simplicity is somewhat obscured by a singularly clumsy terminology.
A likelihood function arises from a conditional probability distribution considered as a function of its distributional parameterization argument, conditioned on the data argument.
Bayesian inference computes the posterior probability according to Bayes' theorem : : where * denotes a conditional probability ; more specifically, it means given.
A similar equation holds for the conditional probability density functions in the continuous case.
For example, if an event has not occurred after 30 seconds, the conditional probability that occurrence will take at least 10 more seconds is equal to the unconditional probability of observing the event more than 10 seconds relative to the initial time.
The basic fallacy results from misunderstanding conditional probability and neglecting the prior odds of a defendant being guilty before that evidence was introduced.